The Mets won 3-2 over the Atlanta Braves at Shea Stadium last night – their ninth win in their last 10 games – lowering their magic number for clinching the NL East to 14 and increasing their lead over Atlanta to 9.5 games. The 2nd-place Phillies meanwhile remain 6 out in the race, and must sweep the Metropolitans over the weekend just to remain in the rearview mirror. Though no one in the clubhouse is ready to discuss it, the playoffs are looking more and more like a certainty for the Orange-and-Blue.

With that in mind, it’s about time to start looking at postseason rosters and rotations. Excluding rookie Mike Pelfrey, currently the team’s No. 6 starter, the Mets have 5 starting pitchers vying for 4 slots in the postseason rotation. Says Ben Shpigel of the New York Times:

Barring any injuries, the first three will be Orlando Hernández, Tom Glavine and Pedro Martínez. Despite his 14 victories and 3.42 earned run average, [Oliver] Pérez is hardly a certainty. The next three weeks, more or less, represent a tryout period for him and John Maine, the other contender…

Meanwhile, Newsday’s Ken Davidoff writes:

Realistically, the two options to be moved to long man are Perez and John Maine, the very pair whose strong performances in October 2006 catapulted them to long-term relevance.

However I wonder if we’re taking a bit too much for granted here. There is no question that the team’s surplus of capable starters can only strengthen an erratic Mets bullpen, but are Maine and Perez really the best candidates to move there?

Perez arrived in Flushing as a pitcher with dominating stuff whose inconsistent command of the strike zone had nearly sabotaged a promising career. Since joining the Mets, pitching coach Rick Peterson has worked hard with Ollie to maintain a consistent arm slot and release point, pitch after pitch. The hard work has paid off, for the most part, however invariably it seems there will come a time in every start where Perez will lose his focus, lose his mechanics, and lose the strike zone. As a result, Ollie is averaging roughly 4 walks per nine innings pitched during this 2007 season – an improvement over his career average of 4.7 walks per nine – and prior to his brilliant turn on the mound last night, Perez had issued five walks in each of his last three starts. Oliver has given the Mets everything they could’ve hoped for out of him this season, and he has proven his value to this team and this rotation. However, one has to worry what sort of returns the team can expect by moving this talented, but erratic arm to a role in the bullpen. It is, at the very least, a dangerous proposition.

And while Perez’s command, or lack thereof, may get much of the attention, largely due to a reputation that proceeded him, fellow youngster John Maine isn’t much better. Maine has issued roughly 3.5 walks per nine this season, and like Perez, they tend to come in bunches. Focus and concentration continue to be a point of emphasis for Maine, and both can desert him at any time. While no one can say for sure, it’s tough to predict what the team could expect from Maine should he be bounced to the pen. Moreover, this is the same John Maine who emerged as a darkhouse candidate for the All-Star team during the season’s first half. While Maine missed the roster, his 10-4 record and 2.71 ERA certainly warranted consideration. Had Maine not pitched to the tune of a 5.86 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

How good would Duaner Sanchez look in a uniform right about now?

It comes down to risk vs. reward, and maximizing your assets. How much is gained by moving Maine or Perez to the bullpen? If the impact is minimal, the team must consider all of its options. For a rotation that averages rarely more than 6 innings per start, the value of the bullpen come October can’t be overstated. And while the team’s current streak of wins has everyone riding high, less than a month ago fans and management alike were in a panic over the state of the Mets’ relief corp. The Mets’ postseason prospects may have improved, but the likes of Aaron Sele, Guillermo Mota, and Scott Schoeneweis certainly have not. Even Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman aren’t the reliable rocks of a season ago, and one could argue that Heilman hasn’t been the same pitcher since Yadier Molina’s NLCS-winning home run last October. The Mets are going to need innings out of their bullpen if they’re to make any sort of credible run in the playoffs, but it remains to be seen from where those innings will come. Though Billy Wagner has put up strong numbers (if uneven results) and Jorge Sosa has a 2.78 ERA since moving to the pen, it’s tough to shake the feeling that the Mets are missing one more piece in that bullpen.

Which brings us to El Duque. Many observers believe that Orlando Hernandez has been the Mets’ most effective starter this season. His 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP leads the Mets’ starting staff, excluding Pedro Martinez, whose 10 innings of work do not constitute a large enough sample. His 9-4 record, however, does not impress, nor do his 141.0 innings pitched – the least of the Mets’ top five starters, excluding Pedro once again. As you’ll recall, Hernandez missed the postseason in 2006 after tearing his calf muscle while jogging in the outfield prior to his Game 1 start in the NLDS. Hernandez kicked off the 2007 season by being diagnosed with neck arthritis in spring training, and missed the end of April and much of May with bursitis in his right shoulder. Incidentally, El Duque takes the mound tonight against the Braves. It will be his first start since August 30th – an 11-10 loss to the Phillies in which the veteran allowed 5 runs through 3 innings before exiting with a strained tendon in his right foot. El Duque’s performance on the mound is rarely an issues, but unfortunately, his durability frequently is. It is a legitimate question whether at this stage of his career, Hernandez is best suited for a starting role. It is not crazy, in fact, to suggest that the pitcher might better aid the club as a reliever, filling a void in the bullpen far better than either John Maine or Oliver Perez could.

In 2005 while with the Chicago White Sox, Hernandez pitched relatively poorly through 22 starts before moving to the bullpen late in the year. He made two appearances out of the pen, recording a save and 4 strike outs in three innings of work. However El Duque’s most memorable moment that season came in the ALDS against the Boston Red Sox. Duque was brought on in the sixth inning of Game 3 and asked to pitch his team out of a no outs, bases loaded jam. Hernandez induced two fly outs before striking out Johnny Damon to end the inning, effectively ending Boston’s season as well. The White Sox went on to win the game and sweep the series.

And so, it begs the question: Is El Duque’s spot in the rotation really set in stone? Might the team not be better served by adding a reliable, veteran arm to an inconsistent bullpen? Might El Duque himself be better served by pitching fewer innings as a reliever? These are questions that Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph, and the rest of the Mets’ brain trust will at the very least ponder as postseason play begins to loom.