And now presenting our third and final episode of Thoughts On a Failed Season, in which we’ll take a look at the Rangers’ salary cap situation and project what this team might look like next September.

Be sure to check out Parts I & II for the rest of our analysis.

I’m no salary cap expert, but I’ll do my best. The cap ceiling this season was set at $50.3 million and reportedly is set to rise to roughly $55 million next season. The Rangers have 13 players under contract for next year for approx. $36.36M. They are: Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Petr Prucha, Brandon Dubinsky, Blair Betts, Henrik Lundqvist, Christian Backman, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Fedor Tyutin, Ryan Callahan, Ryan Hollweg and Colton Orr.

So that leaves us roughly $19 million with which to play. In Part II of this breakdown I predicted the return of restricted free agents Nigel Dawes (950k cap hit) and Freddy Sjostrom (900k), as well as UFAs Jason Strudwick (500k), Sean Avery (2.7M), and Martin Straka (1.9M). For the sake of this unscientific exercise, let’s assume those figures are roughly accurate. Let’s also assume that the Rangers bring in a backup goalie for 900k or less, whether its Stephen Valiquette or a veteran free agent like Johan Hedberg. Those moves bring the Rangers’ cap number up to around $44.18 million and leave the team a little less than 11 million to fill the four remaining spots on their 23-man roster.

Here’s the lineup we’re looking at:
Line 1: Avery | Gomez | ?
Line 2: Dawes | Drury | Callahan
Line 3: Straka | Dubinsky | Prucha
Line 4: Hollweg | Betts | Sjostrom

D1: Staal | ?
D2: Tyutin | Girardi
D3: Backman | Strudwick

G1: Lundqvist
G2: Valiquette/ Hedberg

Scratches: Orr, ?, ?

I’m inclined to believe that the Rangers will dip into Hartford to round out the roster with guys like Lauri Korpiskoski, Greg Moore, and Thomas Pock. Needless to say, the job security of guys like Prucha, Hollweg, Backman, and Strudwick will all be in flux.

So as you can see, the team has two primary needs: Find a winger to pair with Gomez, and find a No. 1 defenseman to pair with Staal and man the point on the powerplay. Even were Jaromir Jagr or Brendan Shanahan willing to accept huge paycuts, neither player fills those holes. In fact, Jagr’s inability to develop chemistry with Gomez at any point this year was one of the most disappointing aspects of the season. Michael Nylander was allowed to depart as a free agent last offseason in large part because the team felt it could upgrade their top line by pairing their captain with another All-Star caliber player. Instead, Jagr ended up playing the majority of the season with rookie Brandon Dubinsky while Gomez recorded 16 goals and 54 assists playing alongside a rotating cast of characters, none of whom ever seemed able to keep up with the speedy Gomez.

If Jagr returns it leaves the Rangers paying Gomez $7.357M per for six more seasons without anyone with whom to play. It relegates Chris Drury to a third line role, which can’t be what Glen Sather had in mind when he signed him to a five-year, $35.25M deal. Bottom line, Jagr can not return under any circumstances. The roster simply isn’t built to accommodate him, and given his cryptic remarks throughout the season I sense Jaromir likely saw the writing on the wall before many of the fans.

The name you’ve probably already heard a zillion times and will likely hear a zillion more times is that of Marian Hossa. There’s a good reason for that. Hossa is quite simply the lone premier free agent on the open market this offseason (assuming he doesn’t resign in Pittsburgh). He earned himself a fair amount of detractors after disappearing in the playoffs last season when the Rangers swept Atlanta in four games, then for an encore recorded just 26 goals and 56 points in 60 games for the miserable Thrashers this season. However since moving to the Penguins at the trade deadline, Hossa has enjoyed a resurgence. His deft finishing touch has proven a perfect complement to the playmaking Sidney Crosby. Hossa is a pure goal scorer who, unlike Jagr, doesn’t need to dominate the puck in order to be productive and is content to find open ice and finish the scoring opportunities that his centerman creates.

The problem with Hossa, of course, is that as the offseason’s lone free agent superstar he is practically guaranteed a mega-contract. He’ll attract every bit of the $35.25 million handed to Drury for five years of his service, and will probably end up signing a deal closer to Gomez’s seven-year, $51.5 million pact. The Rangers certainly have the cap space to offer Hossa a deal in the neighborhood of six years, $44.5 million, however they would kiss goodbye any hope they had of adding a free agent defenseman like San Jose’s Brian Campbell. Colorado’s John-Michael Liles and Pittsburgh’s Brooks Orpik are a couple of options among the second-tier of free agent defenseman, however neither player is the powerplay-QB that the team would like to add.

Now I’d love to go against the consensus here, but at this point, I just can’t. Jagr cannot return to the team for reasons I’ve explained. The Rangers need to find a scoring winger to pair with Scott Gomez. Marian Hossa is the only scoring winger available. Moreover, in recent years this organization has never prioritized the blueline when it comes to allotting payroll. I don’t see them turning around and handing $6 million per to a guy like Campbell, and especially not with offensive defenseman Bobby Sanguinetti coming up the pipeline. To me, it increasingly seems not an issue of ‘if’ with regard to Hossa, but ‘for how much?’

Final verdict: Glen Sather raids the team that sent his team home. Hossa and Orpik both wind up in Ranger blue come July.

But don’t be surprised if…

…with Hossa in the fold, Sather looks to move a contract like Prucha’s or replace a veteran like Straka with a kid like Korpiskoski in order to clear some cap space for a defenseman. In addition to Brian Campbell, Wade Redden is another guy whose name could pop up on the Rangers’ radar.

…a desperate GM overpays for Sean Avery and the Rangers counter by grabbing Jarkko Ruutu from Pittsburgh for a boatload less money.

…Brenden Shanahan returns in a reduced role, serving as combination fourth line winger, PP and PK specialist…and team captain.