Fantasy
This entry was posted on Thursday, February 19th, 2009 at 7:00 pm and is filed under Baseball, Fantasy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

With the winter season coming to an end and pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training, baseball fans can now begin to smell the green grass of America’s greatest pastime.

And with that said, it is only appropriate to analyze the free agency moves of this past off-season. Moves that may push teams into the playoffs, to a World Series title, or completely back fire overall.

So without further adu, here is my top 20 free agent signings of the past off-season in no particular order:

Milton Bradley, Chicago Cubs - Coming off the best year of his career, the often injured and troubled OF signed with the Chicago Cubs in what was an interesting move to say the least. The always intense Bradley will either be a perfect marriage for the equally excitable Lou Piniella or one who finds himself in the dog house the entire season. The 30-year old OF if healthy will provide the Cubs with a great deal of flexibility as he could play all three OF positions. Additionally, Bradley will add even more depth to an already dangerous lineup where he should hit between Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Cubs fans can expect a .300 hitter with 20 homeruns, 85 runs and 85 RBI this season.

Deal: 3 years, $30 million dollars

A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees – Just one part of the Yankees off-season spending spree, Burnett joins a totally rebuilt Yankees rotation. The 32-year old Burnett was 18-10 a year ago with the Toronto Blue Jays where he logged 221 1/3 innings that included 231 strikeouts. Even more impressive, Burnett recorded better than a 2 ½ to 1 strikeout to walk ratio (231 to 86) being a power pitcher. Now with a better team, motivation of a new contract, and an arsenal of filthy pitches, Burnett should win somewhere between 15 and 20 games every season as a Yankee. The only thing can prevent him from achieving these numbers is injuries which have seemed to trail him his entire career.

Deal: 5 years, $82.5 million dollars

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees – Along with fellow free agent Manny Ramirez who has yet to sign with a team, Sabathia was one of the two crown jewels of this off-season. Sabathia is a complete difference maker who is a work horse capable of carrying an entire pitching staff (i.e. Milwaukee Brewers). Just 28, Sabathia should settle into New York very nicely and provide the Yankees with what they so desperately need. There is no reason to not expect Sabathia to win 20 to 22 games along with a CY Young award, and a possible World Series title in 2009.

Deal: 7 years, $161 million dollars

Pat Burrell, Tampa Bay Rays – Although I am not a fan of Burrell’s game, Burrell should be an excellent fit for the Rays. Burrell is best suited as a DH at this point of his career and his post-season and overall experience will be a tremendous asset to the young Rays. Burrell should hit in the 5th or 6th slot and be a solid RBI guy in a very good lineup that already includes Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria . Burrell’s numbers in 2009 should look like .270 avg, 25 homers, 85 rbi, and 75 runs.

Deal: 2 years, $16 million dollars

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers – The ageless Hoffman continues to pitch and despite being 41 can still contribute to just about any team. Hoffman saved 30 of 34 save opportunities last year for the San Diego Padres while still possessing great command (46 K, 9 BB). And while his ERA was alarming at 3.77 which was the first time in 7 years that he was above 3.00, Hoffman can still be counted on as a decent contributor as a third fantasy closer. Expect about a 3.00 ERA, excellent WHIP, but only 20 to 25 saves due to the pitchers that the Brewers have lost from last season.

Deal: 1 year, $6 million dollars

Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies – Losing Burrell to the Rays via free agency, opened the door for Ibanez. The underrated Ibanez like Burrell will fit in very nicely with his new team where he will assume the LF duties while hitting 5th. In a very talented lineup that features Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Ibanez should improve on his yearly solid numbers. Plan on a .300 avg, 20 to 25 homers, 90 to 100 rbi, and 85 runs.

Deal: 3 years, $31.5 million dollars

Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets – Coming off one of the best seasons ever for a relief pitcher, Rodriguez comes to the Mets to sure up a bullpen that single handedly kept the Mets from the post-season a year ago. The 27-year old big game and electric reliever is exactly what the Mets need at the end of games. And while it is hard to expect a repeat performance of K-Rod’s remarkable numbers from a year ago, Rodriguez will still be one of the best closers in all of baseball. A 2009 season of 40 to 45 saves, a 2.00 ERA, 70 strikeouts, and a 1.20 WHIP should be easily attainable.

Deal: 3 years, $37 million dollars

Randy Johnson , San Francisco Giants – The 45-year old lefthander joins his sixth club in his 20th year of his Hall Of Fame career. Just five wins shy of the illustrious 300 mark, Johnson is an excellent signing for a young and talented pitching staff. Johnson will not only serve as a mentor for young hurlers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, but he will help to round out a very nice rotation in what is a weak NL West. Count on Johnson to record 12 to 15 wins with a respectable ERA and a good amount of strikeouts. Johnson is definitely worth a late round selection.

Deal: 1 year, $8 million dollars

Brad Penny , Boston Red Sox – After battling shoulder problems all of last season and only making 17 starts, Penny heads to bean town hoping for better results in 2009. Penny is a power arm who if healthy could be a nice sleeper, but I would not expect anything more than 10 to 12 wins.

Deal: 1 year, $5 million dollars

John Smoltz, Boston Red Sox – Just like Penny, Smoltz is battling back from a shoulder injury as well. However, Smoltz’s injury required surgery that is expected to keep him out until May or even June. The good news though for the Red Sox is that the ultra competitive Smoltz is already participating in conditioning drills with the rest of the team in Spring Training. While this is good news for fantasy owners, I would not commit a roster spot to Smoltz unless you can stash him in a DL spot or if you have deep roster requirements in your league.

Deal: 1 year, $5.5 million dollars

Oliver Perez , New York Mets – Recently re-signed, the 27- year old left hander is an essential piece to the top of the Mets rotation. Perez is a big game pitcher who possesses all of the skills to be an All-Star caliber pitcher. However, in order to do so, he must control his emotions and his control. Being a year older and with the security of a new contract, Perez should continue to evolve. 14 to 16 wins, a 3.75 ERA, almost 200 strikeouts, should not be unrealistic. Just beware of a high possible WHIP.

Deal: 3 years, $36 million dollars

Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees – Despite a disappointing 14-14 season which was the first year in 14 seasons that Pettitte did not finish with a winning record, Pettitte still had an excellent strikeout to walk ratio of nearly 3 to 1 while recording over 200 innings. At 36, Pettitte can still pitch effectively and earn you 13 to 15 wins. I just would not count on him for a good ERA or WHIP.

Deal: 1 year, $5.5 million dollars

Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees Coming off five straight 30+ homerun and 100+ RBI seasons made Teixeira one of the most sought after free agents of this off-season. And with the Yankees needing not only another power bat in their lineup and improved defense at 1B, Teixeira was the perfect match. Now with better protection around him in 2009 there is no reason that Teixeira should not have his finest season yet. 35 to 40 homeruns, 110 to 120 RBI and a .300 avg should look very appealing to Texiera fantasy owners this season.

Deal: 8 years, $180 million dollars

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians – Wood really blossomed in his new role as closer for the Chicago Cubs last season. Wood saved 34 games, had a respectable 3.26 ERA that included more than a 4 ½ to 1 strikeout to walk ratio with a sparkling 1.04 WHIP. Now in 2009, Wood looks to take over the closer role for the Indians who really lacked a true stopper last season. Fantasy owners should wait on Wood and not count on him as your first or second closer due to his health risk. One solid year is not enough to sell me.

Deal: 2 years, $20.5 million dollars

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves – After losing Smoltz to the Red Sox and Tim Hudson to Tommy John surgery, the Braves were desperate for a veteran starter. And with Lowe on the market, the Braves really had no other options. At 35, Lowe is a risk as the Braves signed him for a four year deal at $15 million dollars per year. However, Lowe has proven durable as he has averaged over 200 innings per year for the last seven seasons. Fantasy owners should look to scoop him up in the last five rounds or so of your draft with the expectations of about 15 wins, a decent ERA and a low WHIP.

Deal: 4 years, $60 million dollars

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs – Just like his former teammate Wood, Dempster had a stellar year in 2008 which resulted in a big contract. Dempster won 17 games, logged more than 200 innings and had an ERA under 3.00. While all of these signs point to Dempster possibly turning a corner as a starter, I would still be weary as it was only one year. Don’t overpay for Dempster. Instead try to steal him in the middle rounds and hope that he repeats his 2008 efforts.

Deal: 4 years, $52 million dollars

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers – Furcal was one of the early fantasy season surprises last year until he required surgery on his back. As a result Furcal was only able to play in 36 games and left both the Dodgers and fantasy owners extremely disappointed. Now signed to a $30 million dollar contract over the next three years, the Dodgers are really gambling that Furcal can not only be healthy but produce for the majority of the season. Wait patiently and try to steal him late. Furcal is simply too much of a risk at such a premium middle of the infield spot in fantasy.

Deal: 3 years, $30 million dollars

Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels – The former Rockies closer signed with the Angels and looks to fill the huge void that was left by K-Rod who signed with the Mets. Although Fuentes is probably better suited to be a 7th or 8th inning pitcher, he has proven that he can close. When drafting Fuentes, look to scoop him up as your third or possibly fourth closer due to the fact that Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo will be lurking to vulture saves and or possibly take over as the closer.

Deal: 2 years, $17.5 million dollars

Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals – Despite coming off five straight 40 homerun seasons, Dunn was left without a team until the Nationals signed him last week. Dunn is one of the most intriguing fantasy players that I have come across as he will clearly help you out in the power categories but destroy you in others like avg. Dunn is a straight up masher who if available in rounds five to seven, you cannot afford to pass up on as he will do your team more good than bad.

Deal: 2 years, $20 million dollars

Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels – The always consistent Abreu is coming off yet another fine all around season highlighted by his sixth consecutive 100 RBI year. And at an affordable $5 million dollars a year, how can the Angels go wrong? Abreu could not fit the Angels old school style any more perfect and after losing Garret Anderson and Mark Teixeira, Abreu also fills the Angels immediate need for a hitter. Expected to hit second and the motivation of playing for another contract, expect Abreu to once again be a nice fantasy option with a .295 avg, 20 homeruns, 110 runs, 100 rbi and 20 steals

Deal: 1 year, $5 million dollars

There are currently 23 responses to “Top 20 MLB Free Agent Signings”

Hot Stove New York uses Gravatars — short for Globally Recognized Avatars — for the pictures that show up next to comments.

  1. 1 On February 20th, 2009, Phil said:

    Randy Johnson is joining his 6th team in his 22nd year.

  2. 2 On February 20th, 2009, Don said:

    Sorry,

    The top 20 free agents should become those that were retained at the bargain prices. I mean dollar to value ratio for Bobby Abreu and Pat Burell is simply off the charts. I think alot of the 1 year deals should make this top 20 and signing such as Tex and C.C. is this economy should not even be considered.

  3. 3 On February 20th, 2009, Troy Patterson said:

    I have to disagree on Raul Ibanez. His defense is just as bad as Pat Burrell in LF and Burrell went on to sign for half as much. I think this could be one of the 10 worst signings this offseason.

  4. 4 On February 20th, 2009, BurGi said:

    You’ve just listed all the expensive acquisitions of the year, haven’t you?

    Ibanez! Good deal! Really? (not worth it!)
    Dempster! Good deal! Really? (risky –> can’t say it yet)
    OPerez! Good deal! Really? (If he doesn’t pick up, no!)

  5. 5 On February 20th, 2009, John said:

    “Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets – Coming off one of the best seasons ever for a relief pitcher…”

    You’re kidding, right? Yeah, he got a lot of saves, but everyone knows that is a pretty worthless stat. Take a look at how he actually pitched, his peripherals, and advanced stats for the ’08 season. He was MAYBE among the best 5 relievers in ’08.

  6. 6 On February 20th, 2009, PL said:

    This was linked on mlbTR why? its just a list of all the high priced/long term signings. half of these will prove to be horrible. Milton Bradley will be lucky to play 100 games a year.

    In this market, signings like Giambi+Burrell were the best. Dunn hitting 40+ HR and OBPing .380 for $10M was good too.

  7. 7 On February 20th, 2009, Chad said:

    Phil. Thanks for the heads up. I just corrected Randy Johnson’s section to reflect 6 years. Forgot about his brief Expo days.

  8. 8 On February 20th, 2009, jason said:

    what about Dayan for the White Sox? 4 yr 10 mil with the upside he has is a steal.

  9. 9 On February 20th, 2009, Big Jgke said:

    “Losing Burrell to the Rays via free agency, opened the door for Ibanez.”

    no it didn’t, ibanez signed well before burrell did, and the phillies paid many times more for an older player. why are you just listing the most expensive deals of the offseason?

  10. 10 On February 20th, 2009, Jeff Zachowski said:

    It’s amazing that people continue to sleep on Raul Ibanez. The guy just keeps putting up numbers year after year. Great signing by the Phillies.

  11. 11 On February 20th, 2009, bob said:

    #10. Sleep on Ibanez… what a joke. he’s solid but he’s not a difference maker. everything ibanez can do, bobby abreu can do (besides be a lefty hitter) at half the price and 2 less years. there’s no getting past it… the phillies overpaid and they overpaid big time… and let fan favorite/met killer burrell go.

    there are other factors playing against him as well:
    age is going to catch up to ibanez during his contract. any benefit from switching leagues and hitting in a better lineup is going to be negated by the fact that he’s not just over the hill, but well over it. you can only imagine what’s going to happen if he gets hurt or struggles early.

  12. 12 On February 20th, 2009, Kevin said:

    Great list by you, but I’m not sure if Ryan Dempster was a great signing. Oliver Perez is also a bit of a risk. But, if they work out then great. Ibanez has been underrated for so long. Maybe with the exposure in Philedelphia people will begin to appreciate his talent and knowledge of the game. -Kevin, N.Y.

    P.S.: Great website you got here

  13. 13 On February 20th, 2009, Kurt said:

    Hey Bob (#11) YOU ARE A FOOL… IBANEZ AND ABREU BOTH HIT LEFT-HANDED, IN FACT THEY ARE THE SAME PLAYER… The only difference is that Abreu steals bases and Ibanez throws out runners better. I would say they are equal though. (Ibanez has more outfield assists going into 2008 than ALL other outfielders in baseball EXCEPT Alexis Rios, just rememeber that!) Ibanez was also a reserve player for a long time and still has very fresh legs, look for him to play into his early 40s!

  14. 14 On February 20th, 2009, Kurt said:

    The best signings should be value versus cost, I think. Paying 23MM for a guy tat effects 35 games a year and only will give you at best 25 QS if he’s a CY Young pitcher, means that he will really effect only 1/6 of the Yankee games, he will also get out pitched based on probability and statistics atleast 1/5 of the days, so really he is a difference maker in only 20 games and add into the type of offense in the Bronx and do you really think that 23MM for a guy that is equla to (pulling a number out of my bottom) +3 or +4 wins is worth it?

    The TOP 20 signings should not be based on dollar but production to cost, so guys like this should be on the list…

    Griffey @ 2MM x 1 year
    Abreu @ 5MM x 1 year
    Burrell @ 8MM x 2 years
    Mi. Sweeney @ league minimum for minor league deal
    Ga. Anderson @ 1-2MM x 1 year (probable contract)
    An. Jones @ league minimum for the Rangers
    Pettitte @ 5.5MM x 1 year
    Blake @ 5.83MM x 3 years
    Giambi @ 4.5MM x 1 year

    Just as some examples!

  15. 15 On February 21st, 2009, Troy Patterson said:

    Ibanez was possibly the worst signing this year. According to fangraphs.com Burrell would have supplied an extra win over replacement compared to Ibanez. So the Phillies paid 3 years and many more millions and got worse.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/replacing-burrell-with-ibanez

  16. 16 On February 21st, 2009, Jeff Zachowski said:

    bob – Ibanez and Abreu are both lefty batters. When you make an obvious mistake like that, it shows me that A) You haven’t watched these two players enough to compare, and B) You’ve given me no reason to take anything you say seriously. Also, a year ago this time, Pat Burrell was Public Enemy #1 in Philadelphia, so to call him a fan favorite. Again, you clearly troll the web and spew garbage without ever watching an actual baseball game.

    Pat Burrell is a .257 career hitter. His average last year sank to .250. The fact that anyone can talk this guy up is unbelievable. Ibanez meanwhile registered more than 100 RBI last season for the third consecutive season (Burrell’s only managed 100+ RBIs twice in his entire career). He also posted career bests in hits and doubles, so to state that “he’s not just over the hill, he’s well over it” is the height of ignorance. Moving to the bandbox that is Citizen’s Bank Park, his numbers will only increase.

    Clearly you can argue the years and the money. Three years is a lot for a 36-year-old player. But you can’t compare the two players talent-wise. Ibanez is twice the player that Burrell is, and maybe now that he’ll be playing in a larger market, fans around baseball will begin to realize it.

  17. 17 On February 22nd, 2009, FireJoeMorgan said:

    Jeff Zachowski: “Ibanez is twice the player that Burrell is…”

    Burrell Career AVG/OBP/SLG: .257 / .367 / .485
    Ibanez Career AVG/OBP/SLG: .286 / .346 / .472

    Burrell Career OPS+: 119
    Ibanez Career OPS+: 113

    Burrell Career EqA: .291
    Ibanez Career EqA: .286

    Burrell Careeer WARP: 43.2
    Ibanez Career WARP: 37.3

    You may go to lots of games and buy lots of “Ibanez #1!” foam fingers, but you’re obviously not paying attention to the important stuff. By every measure imaginable Burrell is the better player. And he’ll be significantly cheaper for the next 2 years!

  18. 18 On February 23rd, 2009, Jeff Zachowski said:

    So were you leading the cheering section two seasons ago when Burrell was hovering around the mendoza line and Charlie Manuel was reluctant to even put the guy in the lineup? You’re right. He’s a gem. I smell an AL East repeat!

  19. 19 On February 23rd, 2009, FireJoeMorgan said:

    Two seasons ago? Do you mean 2003 when Burrell hit .209? If so, you’re correct that he had a bad year (though incorrect about the manager–Bowa was around through 2004). Are you suggesting that Burrell’s 2003 season dooms him permanently to a “half the player of Ibanez” characterization? Man, there’s some serious qualitative analysis going on over here…

    And please avoid the strawman “he’s a gem!” argument in the future. This discussion is about whether Pat Burrell is better than Raul Ibanez, not the independent merits of either.

  20. 20 On February 23rd, 2009, Jeff Zachowski said:

    I wasn’t referring specifically to 2003. Burrell’s career has been peppered with trips to the pine due to lack of production and/or poor work ethic. A quick Google search yields that as recently as this passed September Manuel sent Pat the Bat to the bench for his .167 average over the span of his previous 107 at-bats. I’m not a Phillies fan, so I’m not an expert on the calendar of the guy’s travails. I have a lot of respect for FireJoeMorgan.com, but little for your argument and even less for your snide attitude. I’m a fan of guys who make contact. I think a .300 average still means something in this sport. So sue me. You can take your Jason Giambis and Adam Dunns and Pat Burrells and go to town. I’ll take Raul Ibanez, sorry. At the end of the day, I think the Phillies will take Ibanez’s .290 BA, 25 HRs, and 110 RBI, and as a Mets fan, I wish he were still in Seattle.

  21. 21 On February 24th, 2009, FireJoeMorgan said:

    “I think a .300 average still means something in this sport.”

    Raul Ibanez has hit .300 or better exactly once in his illustrious career. If you’re going to base your evaluations solely on batting average, you should drool over someone other than a guy who’s sitting at .286 for his career. I hear the Dodgers are trying to move Juan Pierre and his horrid contract. And he’s a .300 career hitter! Three times the player Burrell is!!

    “I have a lot of respect for FireJoeMorgan.com, but little for your argument and even less for your snide attitude.”

    MY argument is that YOUR argument (Ibanez is twice the player Burrell is, remember?) is ridiculous. And it is. By every measure possible, except batting average (which is, apparently in your mind, more important than anything else). As for the attitude, what can I say? I’ve never been tactful at telling people they’re wrong. Especially when they’re REALLY wrong and REALLY stubborn about it. But please, don’t let me get in the way of your love for baseball card stats…

  22. 22 On February 24th, 2009, Jeff Zachowski said:

    Love for baseball card stats? You’re the stat man. Let me know which team your calculator tells you will win the NL East so I can save myself the misery of another September free fall. As for Ibanez, the proof will be in the pudding, I suppose.

  23. 23 On April 21st, 2009, Jeff Zachowski said:

    Pat the Bat is obviously taking a Tortoise v. Hare approach to the 2009 season.

    Burrell 2009 AVG/OBP/SLG: .225/ .319/ .350
    Ibanez 2009 AVG/OBP/SLG: .386/ .438/ .864

    Burrell 2009 OPS+: 72
    Ibanez 2009 OPS+: 221

    Burrell 2009 EqA: .245
    Ibanez 2009 EqA: .394

    Burrell 2009 WARP1/ WARP2/ WARP3: -0.0/ .0/ -1.7
    Ibanez 2009 WARP1/ WARP2/ WARP3: 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.4

    Stay tuned…

  • Press Harbor