Comments on: Bay Over Holliday? Not So Fast.

By: Jeff Zachowski

Jeff Zachowski — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:46:46 +0000

Vin – Apologies for the confusion. The chart is superimposed correctly. Those balls are foul outs. I chose to show all balls put in play because theoretically an out in one park could be a home run in another. I didn’t color code the hits/outs because I thought it’d be easier to compare/ contrast the two players if we stuck to two colors.

By: Vin

Vin — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:26:01 +0000

yeah i agree with that last comment but also i think this is superimposed wrong…look at all the balls down the right field line that are in foul territory…if those balls were foul they woundn’t be hits…i think the field needs to be pulled back and it will be more accurate…according to this bay would hit 6 hrs…i mean thats obviously skewed

By: greggofboken

greggofboken — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 02:59:26 +0000

Jeff…Apologies for any confusion. I’m contending that Bay’s home runs as a Met (playing his home games in Citi) would have resulted in between 28-32 home runs total for the season rather than the 36 he had on the Sox. Holliday, I’m contending, would have ended up w/16-20 as a Met, rather than the 26 he put out. Both players would have lost some, but Holliday’s drop-off would have been greater it seems (minimum of 25% fewer).

By: Jeff Zachowski

Jeff Zachowski — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:53:17 +0000

Gregg – Bay would have hit 28-32 balls out of Citi Field? That can’t be. Factor in his homers on the road and you’re talking about a 50 home run season.

By: Jeff Zachowski

Jeff Zachowski — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:51:09 +0000

Vladi – Two things. 1) No one says it proves anything. I said it was an unscientific exercise and I found the results discouraging. 2) The general consensus is that the monster gives more homers than it robs. If you’re assuming that every ball off the monster would have been a homer at Citi Field, you’re making a huge mistake. Also, don’t forget, the left field wall at Citi is no slouch. 12 feet at the foul pole and nearly 16 feet at its apex.

I’ve checked out Hittrackeronline and I’m anxious to give their numbers a thorough looking over, but unfortunately I haven’t got the time right now. I will do it over the weekend and post an update.

Thanks for reading.

By: greggofboken

greggofboken — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:37:32 +0000

I did, cursorily. My own conclusions were that Holliday would have put between 16-20 out in CitiField but that Bay would have hit between 28-32. (The differential is based on the assumption that some of the “lost” homeruns for each would have been hit outside of CitiField.) See how it looks to you.

By: amazin vladi

amazin vladi — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:29:41 +0000

Notice how if you count all the red dots by left field (most likely line drives stopped by the monster and I can tell because they all seem to end at the same trajectory)and add them to the red dots that are over the fence the score is alot closer then you would think. I have it at 15-15 with possibly Bay having more. This proves nothing.

By: Jeff Zachowski

Jeff Zachowski — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:25:54 +0000

Thanks Greg – I knew there was a site like that but couldn’t think of the name. I’ll check it out tonight. Have you looked at their data yourself? Any conclusions?

By: gbaked

gbaked — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:20:20 +0000

if you look at the image, you can basically see the green monster on bays hits. There is a straight line the cuts right across left field.

By: greggofboken

greggofboken — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:20:14 +0000

Jeff: Have you visited hittrackeronline? It has the HR data for both players for both their home and away HR’s. You may find it very informative. There’s also a calculation indicating the number of ML parks each HR would have gone out in. I’d suggest a visit. You may re-draw some of your conclusions after looking.