Who to draft: Jason Kidd vs. Devin Harris

The case for Kidd: In his first full year with the Mavericks, Kidd averaged 9 points, 8.7 assists (5th in the NBA), 6.2 rebounds 2 steals (3rd in the NBA) and 1.6 threes per game. On any given night Kidd has a solid chance of recording a triple-double. Dallas signed F Shawn Marion who was Kidd’s former teammate with the Phoenix Suns. Baring injury Kidd is a safe third round pick because of his contributions in assists, rebounds, and threes. The formet Net also turned the ball over just 2.28 times per game which was his lowest total since 96-97. He shot 46% from the field and averaged 11.4 points per game in 10 playoff games last season.

The case against Kidd: Since being traded to Dallas during the 07-08 season he has averaged 9.5 points during that span. He also has not shot over 44% from the field since the 98-99 season. Kidd is now 36 years old and the upside is very limited. He also rarely goes to the foul line attempting just 1.3 per game last season.

The case for Harris: Harris had a breakout year for the Nets last season averaging 21.3 points, 6.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. During November he averaged 26.3  and 25.7 points per game during February which shows his upside. The potential to score even more is high with the departure of Vince Carter. Harris averaged 8.8 free throws attempted per game which was 5th in the league.

The case against Harris: He missed 13 games last season due to different injuries and has already injured his groin and ankle during the preseason. He also made just .9 threes per game and averaged 3.1 turnovers. The Nets landed PG Rafer Alston in the  Carter trade who could push him for some minutes. The departure of VC could mean less assists. and durability of Harris is very questionable.

It’s so funny to me how reluctant the average fantasy basketball player is to accept change in fantasy standings, but also how quickly someone’s opinion will change based on something they hear or perceive. For example, let’s take the case of Kevin Durant. Long slated to be a mega-stud in the NBA, KD broke out on a torrent last year. Let’s take a look at his beastly totals from last year:

.476/.863 FG/FT%    452FTM, 97  Tre’s,     1871 Pts,  482 REB,  205AST, 96st,  53blocks

Averaging 25.3 ppg, Durant was a gem. He’s young, incredibly athletic, and the precision outside shooting from a 6′9 G/F makes him almost unstoppable when he’s hot.

All of a sudden, people are saying that Durant is better than Lebron James. Folks, these types of statements are absurd. Let’s break this down for a second. Lebron plays on a team with Mo Williams, Delonte West, Zydryunas IlGauskas……..all guys who can put the ball in the basket. Durant played with Russell Westbrook ( shot only 39% from the field) ,  Jeff Green (noted for his defensive skills), and other noted incapables such as Robert Swift, Malik Rose,  D.J. White, and Etan Thomas. This year, with the addition of James Harden who is not only a capable scorer but someone who can create for himself, as well as useful contributors such as Desmond Mason and Shaun Livingston, don’t expect Durant’s scoring to go up. In fact, expect it to go down. Durant is not a “slasher”; he is a smart player who uses screens and exploits the match-ups that are available, but his strength lies in the mid and long-range shooting. With Harden holding down the SG spot, Durant will not be able to exploit match-ups against notably smaller opponents. Without another notable dominant category under his belt other than PTS, it is going to be hard to build your team around a SG outside of the top 5 in scoring, especially when you’re spending a high pick on him. Let’s take a look at another guy, who although might not be young, he is a superstar  that can be drafted 20+ picks later and provide you with comparable  stats. First let’s revisit Durant:

KD: .476/.863 FG/FT%    452FTM, 97  Tre’s,     1871 Pts,  482 REB,  205AST, 96st,  53blocks

XX:  .457/.830                    459 FTM,  119 Tre’s,    1658 pts, 457 Reb,  294 Ast,  80 st, 27blocks

While the stats are not exact, and the %’s and extra blocks would probably reinforce the fact that Durant should be drafted higher, Paul Pierce has been one of the most consistent fantasy performers of the last decade. Granted, nay-sayers will point to his fade down the playoff stretch last year, but let’s be serious: Pierce carried that team for most of the regular season and is the reason Boston was even able to make it out of the 1st round of the playoffs. Their strong regular season record ensured  a 1st round match-up against a weaker opponent, one who the Celtics could barely manage to scrape by.  Any higher  seeded team surely would have knocked Boston out in the 1st round. Also, just a reminder, NBA playoffs have nothing to do with Fantasy Playoffs.

Pierce is still a stud. He won’t score 25 ppg anymore, but his stats across the board still mean he’s worthy of a top 25 pick. With KG back, Pierce’s scoring numbers might take a small hit, but 19-20ppg is a solid number. In 2007-2008, with a healthy Garnett on the court, Pierce scored 1570 pts but added a very impressive 143 – 3’s ,    363 Assists,   and 101 steals. Expect a similar season in 09-10.Also,  Pierce has played in 79+ games a season 9 out of the last 10 years. Reliability is my favorite attribute.

So folks, if you’re playing Rotisserie Basketball, don’t overpay for points with a top 5 pick. This is a stats game, and points are readily available everywhere. It’s the more important categories like assists, steals and blocks that need to be addressed. To shine a light on it: 20 players averaged 20ppg or more last year; only 10 players averaged 7+ assists, and only 9 players averaged 9+ rebounds. There are needs to fill with every pick, so choose wisely.

Gerald Wallace vs. Andre Iguodala

The case for Wallace: Wallace averaged a career high 7.8 rebounds to go along with 1.7 steals, .9 blocks, shot 48% from the field and 80% from the foul line. However, his fantasy potential should be based on the 14 games he in March where he averaged 19.5 points, 9 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.4 blocks and .9 threes per game. He also shot 58% from the field which is outstanding for a small forward. He cut down his turnovers from the previous season from 2.9 to 2.1.

The case against Wallace: His scoring dipped last year (down to 16.7 from 19.4) and has missed 43 regular season games the past three seasons due to injury. Head Coach Larry Brown might consider playing Wallace at the 4 which would hurt his fantasy value. He needs to raise his assists (2.7) if he wants to go ahead of Igudola.

The case for Igudola: Iggy has missed just six games in five seasons and has played in all 82 in four of them. Last season he averaged 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.6 steals, shot 47% from the field and 72% from the line. He stepped up on the offense side with Elton Brand missing 53 games due to injury averaging at least 20 points in January, March and April. He has been working out at shooting guard which should rise his threes. He also logs big minutes as he averaged at least 39 minutes per game the past three seasons.

The case against Igudola: He struggled to start the season averaging just 13 points in November with a healthy Brand playing. However, the team is running a Princeton offense under new Coach Eddie Jordan,  which Iggy should thrive in. However, he shot a career low 72% from the line last season and needs to cut down his turnovers.

DJ Mbenga- F/C  Los Angeles Lakers

Mbenga is one-half Belgian, one-half Congolese, and one-half useless. Perennially signed to intimidate opponents in the paint, the only person Mbenga intimidates is the closest reporter to the end of the bench, because that is where he sits for about 42 minutes every game. Unless you are in a 40 team league, stay away from the Belgian Bruiser.

Jerome James- C  Chicago Bulls

According to Chicago news wires, “Big Snacks” has cut back on the cheesesteaks and turned up his training regimen, and he’s hoping to make a dramatic comeback in 2009 and possibly scam one last team in free agency. Either way, the best logic is to stay away…..far, far away. The Knicks didn’t get that memo, but I hope you do.

Hamed Haddadi- C   Memphis Grizzlies

Hamed Haddadi might be the Prince of Persia, but in America his throne is a metal chair on the end on the bench. In fact, when the Lakers play the Grizzlies, not only do you get Gasol vs Gasol, you also get the fearsome matchup Mbenga vs Haddadi to see who will log the least playing time.

Malik Rose- PG/SG/SF/PF/C/Util- Oklahoma City Thunder

It’s sad to think that guys like Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley, and Karl Malone don’t have Championship rings, but Malik Rose does. Malik is as useful as a blind witness. He could maybe win you an “Alley-Oops Clanked off the Backboard” category. It was a sad day for Knicks fans when Malik was traded…….and by sad, I mean amazing.

Mouhamed Saer Sene- C  Free Agent

The Senegalese Senator of Swats will be honing his defensive craft for the Albuquerque Thunderbirds this season, but don’t be surprised if he’s called up to help some unlucky team win last place and year-long humiliation. In his defense, Sene did perform well in D-League. A couple of solid outings in the NBA, and the Knicks could come calling with an offer.

Fantasy Faceoff: Chauncey Billups or Jose Calderon

Both point guards are drafted in the second round and each bring different strengths to the table.

Case for Billups: Biliups continued his efficient play with the Nuggets last season averaging 17.7 points, 6.4 assists, 3 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game in 77 regular season games. He made 2.1 three per game which was his most since the 05-06 season. While his fg % is one of his drawbacks he shot 45% in 16 postseason games. Billups is almost automatic from the line shooting 91% and 92% the past two seasons.

Case against: He shot 42% from the field during the regular season and has turned the ball over at least two times per game the past three seasons. Billups turned 34 years old last month but he has not shown any sings of age yet.

Case for Calderon: Last season he averaged 12.8 points, 8.9 assists, 1.2 threes, 1.1 steals and shot 50% from the field and 98% from the foul line. The 29 year old is in his prime and recovered from the hamstring injury. The Spanish PG has the ability to finish the season top five in assists. Before last season he turned the ball over 1.5 times to along with 8.3 assists per game. He skipped the European basketball tournament to be ready for the upcoming season and could see a bump in his numbers with the improved lineup. His percentages, assists and assist/turnover ratio makes him an elite point guard option.

Case Against: He missed 14 games last season due to a hamstring injury and disappointed many fantasy owners. He is an inconsistent  scorer and has not averaged more than 13 points in a season. Owners should overrate his free throw % as he will attempt about 300 less than Billups. He also averages about a three less per game than the Nuggets PG.

Who to draft first Kobe Bryant or Deron Williams?

Kobe is the safer and more well rounded fantasy player but choosing Deron is also a solid way to go. There fantasy ADP (average draft position) are both around picks 5-8.

Case for Kobe: Kobe played in all 82 regular season games averaging 26.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.4 threes per game.  However, he elevated his game in the playoffs averaging 34 points in the conference finals and 32.4 points with 7.4 assists in the NBA Finals. Kobe contributes in almost every category and is a safe top 5 pick. Even though he is getting older his skills are not diminishing and his fantasy numbers remain great as he is evolving into better teammate.

Case for Deron: Williams is the second point guard taken after Chris Paul. Williams played in 68 games last season due to a sprained ankle he suffered early in the year. He averaged 19.4 points, 10.7 assists (second in the NBA), 1.3 steals and 1 three per game. In his last eight games he averaged 23 points, 11 assists and shot 48% from the field and 87% from the foul line. With the same team and ankle injury behind him he should average 20 points and 11 assists this season. Williams has the potential to finish ahead of Bryant this year in the fantasy rankings.

C- Emeka Okafor

If you’re looking for a real, dominant center to hold down those REB and BLK numbers, look no further than Emeka Okafor. Long stamped with the “underachiever tag”, a trade to new Orleans could be exactly what Okafor needs to break through. Chris Paul helped transform Tyson Chandler, an athletic big man with relatively few offensive skills, into a double-double machine. Emeka was a double-double machine without the star pg(no disrespect to Ray Felton, he’s my boy). In the last 3 seasons, Okafor has eclipsed the 750 reb and 135 blk thresholds, including seasons of 875 rebounds and over 170 blocks. He also puts up a more than respectable 56% from the field. Last year, Chris Bosh shot 48% from the field and blocked 77 shots, just to put things in perspective. Don’t overpay for points at the C position.

PF- Luis Scola

With Yao slated be out most of if not the whole season, Luis Scola is an absolute no-brainer. Last year, Scola had the 11th most rebounds in the league. Safe to say he finishes top 10 again this year and probably even higher. Just remember, he doesn’t block any shots so his value is really at the PF position. A nice note, he did have 68 steals last year.  He averaged 12.7 ppg and 8.8 rpg in just over 30 minutes of play. Project that over 35-36 minutes, without Yao, and well…….I don’t want to offend any experts.

SF- Charlie Villanueva

Now that Detroit has rid itself of the Allen Iverson plague, let go of the skilled but aging big man Rasheed Wallace, and added the most dynamic 6th man in basketball in Ben Gordon, the road is paved for Charlie V to become a breakout star. After averaging 16.2 points and 6.7 reb  in just over 26 minutes last year, prepare to see his shiny head flying across your TV screen on a nightly basis. Detroit plans to turn him loose, which could produce frightening numbers. He hit almost 90 3’s last year, and that number will surely go over 100 in 09-10. He also shoots 84% from the line, and while he may not produce numbers like some of the big SF going in the first 2 rounds, he is a solid buy for 3’s, points, and rebounds from the sf slot.

SG- OJ Mayo

If it wasn’t for the Derrick Rose show in Chicago, Mayo would have surely been the NBA Rookie of the Year. Last year, Mayo was 13th in the NBA in 3ptm. He could strongly benefit from an increase in his .438 fg%, but the addition of Allen Iverson could mean more 3pt opportunities for Mayo and better shot selection. For an example why Mayo has solid value, let’s compare him to another SG going about 10-15 picks earlier.

Mayo- .438%   .879%    145-3’s   1516-pts   308-reb  262-ast  91 stl

J-Rich  .477%  .769%    129-3’s   1212-pts    319-reb  146-ast  76stl

…………

PG- Raymond Felton

RayRay just signed a 1 year deal with Charlotte, and I’m sure he wants to play well to cash in on some of that purported 2010 money. Last year, Felton was 10th in total assists, ahead of named like Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker, Baron Davis, Derrick Rose, and Andre Miller. He had 126 steals, also 10th in the NBA, ahead of noted ball-hawks Kobe Bryant, Devin Harris, and Caron Butler. Felton is ranked 107th in Y! leagues, and proves to pay much higher dividends than his current ADP.

The San Antonio Spurs released former University standout Jack McClinton on the eve of training camp. McClinton is the all time 3-point percentage leader in ACC history and was selected by the Spurs in the second round of the 2009 NBA Draft (51st overall). He struggled in the Vegas Summer League but has the potential to light it up as he had consecutive 30-point games against Wake Forest, Duke and North Carolina. He averaged 19.3 points during his junior year while shooting 45% from downtown. The Spurs added NBA veterans Keith Bogans and Dwayne Jones which was a reason he asked for his release.

Before the NBA Draft, there were rumors that Knicks Head Coach Mike D’Antoni praised the 24-year old shooting ability. Donnie Walsh should bring in him in and compete for a spot as the Knicks released sharp shooter Morris Almond.

Recently, I watched some punk from Boston named Rice get inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame. It took him every single one of his 15 eligible years to finally get voted in. This makes me upset. Here’s why…………

Let’s compare these two statistics. The first set is Jim Rice. The second set is a player who retired in 2000 who has not even come up in the discussion. He too was one of the most feared hitters in his decade. And like Rice, he had a tumultuous relationship with the media. Let’s compare.

Rice: 16 Seasons  2089 Games  1249 Runs  382 HR  1451 RBI .298 AVG  670BB  .502 SLG   .854 OPS

Player B: 12 Seasons 1539 Games  974 Runs  381 HR  1239 RBI  .295 AVG  683 BB  .564 SLG  .933 OPS

Jim Rice was an 8 time all star and has an MVP award. Albert Belle only went to 5 all-star games, but he was as good a hitter as any during the 90’s. His career OPS is almost 80 points higher than Rice’s, and he drew 13 more walks in 550 fewer games. If he wasn’t such a media heel, we’d be talking about this guy right now like they talk about Rice.

Albert Belle for Hall of Fame!!!!!!

Donnie Walsh has had discussions with Von Wafer, according to the guard’s agent. Wafer averaged a career high 9.7 points for the Rockets last season. The five-year pro was on the Knicks summer league roster last season but found his niche with Houston. The former second round pick shot 45% from three last season and would provide the Knicks with another shooter off the bench. New York could offer Wafer a one-year deal worth the biannual exception (about $2.9 million). 

Fast forward to about 65 minutes and listen to me (7/23/09 http://www.blogtalkradio.com/realsportstalk/2009/07/24/Real-Sports-Talk